Number: 02 Date: 08/10/2009 Category: Natural resources and environment Contact: Manuel Navarro Bernal Telephone: (+34) 950 015 061 Email: mnavarro@ual.es

ALMERIA UNIVERSITY (UAL) SEEKS TO MITIGATE THE CONSEQUENCES OF EARTHQUAKES THROUGH ADVANCE ESTIMATION OF ANTICIPATED DAMAGES

Experts at the Almeria and Granada universities have joined forces to mitigate the consequences of a hypothetical earthquake in southeast Spain. Based on the known local seismic threat, the vulnerability of the buildings and the current population centres, the scientists seek to estimate the probable damages and victims caused by each earthquake. This study has been funded within the 2004-2007 National R&D&I Plan, with a total of 82,000 euro. The ultimate goal of this research, led by Manuel Navarro Bernal, professor in the Applied Physics Department at UAL, is to define a method to obtain an evaluation of seismic damage scenarios at urban level and apply it to the cities of Granada, Almeria, Adra and Alhama de Granada. Finally the data and results will be incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) to be used to take efficient measures before and after earthquakes. The idea behind this is to facilitate urban planning and seismic emergency planning. Before and after an earthquake Seismic risk management can be defined as a set of measures taken before and after a destructive earthquake has occurred for the purpose of modifying the threat or vulnerability levels, making it possible to prevent or reduce the existing risks. "The prior measures referred to that seek to prevent or reduce future risks include prevention, mitigation, preparation, alert and response organisation techniques." In order to design efficient strategies it is essential to carry out detailed studies of the risk levels in each zone and create the corresponding seismic damage scenarios. To define possible seismic damage scenarios, the experts will analyse geologic, seismic and seismic engineering aspects, all of these in relation to threat, vulnerability, seismic damage and economic effects. This multidisciplinary project, entitled Evaluación de Escenarios Sísmicos y Daños Esperados en áreas urbanas del SE español para su aplicación en la Gestión de Emergencias y Reducción del Riesgo Sísmico, (Evaluation of Seismic and Anticipated Damage Scenarios in Urban Areas of SE Spain for Application in Emergencies Management and Reduction of Seismic Risk) covers two areas. One of these deals with the scientific and methodological advances in the detailed evaluation of urban seismic threat and risks, whilst the other covers the application of these methods to estimate the effects of future earthquakes by drawing up databases and maps of seismic damage threats, risks and scenarios, all of this oriented towards seismic risk prevention, management and mitigation. Scientific uncertainty At the moment there is not enough scientific knowledge to enable precise earthquake prediction. It is difficult to predict, when, where and how an earthquake will occur, i.e. time of occurrence, location and magnitude. Navarro Bernal explains this, saying that "systems as complex as the atmosphere or the plate dynamics are affected by so many factors of such a diverse nature that it is impossible to predict exactly how they will behave in the future." However, the uncertainty is not absolute as it is possible to predict the characteristics of anticipated seismic movements in each zone of an urban area − called the local seismic threat − based on recent seismic research. Furthermore, using this knowledge, accompanied by the definition of the vulnerability of the buildings and the existing population centres, it is possible to estimate the probable damages and victims caused by each earthquake (Seismic Damage Scenarios) and, through these characterise the urban seismic risk.